 |
|
|
|
by:
Jack M. Nilles
JALA International, Inc.
Los Angeles and Bonn, November 1999
Contact:
Gesellschaft für Kommunikations- und Technologieforschung mbH, Oxfordstr. 2, D-53111 Bonn
Tel.: (+49 02 2) 9 85 30-0, Fax: (+49 02 28) 9 85 30-12, Email: info@empirica.com, http://www.empirica.com, http://www.ecatt.com, Contact: Werner B. Korte
1 Argentina
1.1 The economy
Argentina is often considered to be the most European, and one of the most developed, of Latin American countries. This is evident in an analysis of the composition of its workforce. Figure 1 shows the four-sector analysis of the workforce and its likely growth patterns.
Figure 1: Estimated composition of the workforce in Argentina
The strong and growing information sector is an indicator of likely long-term growth both in e-commerce and new ways to work.
As in the rest of the world, the Internet has been well received in South America. Although the total numbers are still relatively low, roughly 8.5 million Internet users in 1998, annual growth rates are high - approaching 800 percent. Similarly, the number of Latin American Web sites is approaching 500,000.
However, like many countries in this transition period, growth in Internet usage in Argentina has been hampered by the relatively high cost of telecommunications. For example, Telintar, the long distance monopoly, was charging up to $32,000 monthly for a 64 kbps international link before the telecommunication reforms began in 1997. The post-reform price for the link in 1998 was $2,000. In mid-1999 the average monthly charge for Internet access, including ISP and telephone costs, was USD54-more than double the cost in the US.
Another barrier to Internet growth in Argentina is the lack of Spanish content Web sites, particularly those with local content. In 1998 there were only about 4,000 Argentinean Web sites. The absence of local content, or the prevalence of English-only content, is a strong deterrent to curiosity of potential Internet users. The lack of region-specific content makes the country dependent on its higher cost international connections for access to information.
In 1997 the privatization process began in earnest. By the end of 1999 there will be an additional two telecommunication carriers competing for business in Argentina. Furthermore, subscribers will then be able to choose their local and long distance carriers. The fixed network will be completely digital. The consequences of this began to be felt in increased Internet growth in 1997. In addition to the rapid growth rate of Internet access, possibly accelerated by decreasing telecommunications costs, the number of main telephone lines and mobile telephone connections also has been growing rapidly. Our current estimate of the Internet access status and future is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Estimated changes in Internet usage in Argentina.
1.2 E-commerce
Figure 3: Domestic electronic commerce in Argentina
It is difficult to find any evidence of electronic commerce in Argentina of a magnitude similar to that occurring in United States and the EU countries, since the financial services infrastructure is not yet ready to support extensive e-commerce activities. Most of the emphasis to date is upon business to consumer e-commerce, with little public evidence of business-to-business e-commerce. Still, as the growth rates of networked computers and Internet access continue, significant levels of electronic commerce should begin to appear in the next few years. Figure 3 provides our current estimate of the status and future course of electronic commerce in Argentina. The figure only shows domestic e-commerce activity; a roughly equivalent volume is expected in international e-commerce.
1.3 New Ways to Work
Approximately one-third of Argentina's population lives in the Buenos Aires vicinity. Like most large cities, with a population estimated at over 12 million in the year 2000, traffic congestion is a growing problem, as is interest in telework. The current forecast for telework in Argentina is shown in Figure 4. Unfortunately, no survey data are available indicating actual status.
Figure 4: Estimated growth of telework in Argentina
The Argentina government hosted a seminar on telework in 1995 and there has been some effort in the private sector to promote more telework, but no implementation projects have grown to the point where they have received public notice.
